Tuesday, March 3, 2020

GLOBAL CONFLICT AND DISORDER PATTERNS: 2020


ACLED
This paper was presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference at a side event hosted by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) in partnership with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). It is an updated and expanded version of Global Conflict and Disorder Patterns: 2019.

Click here to see the paper.
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Unrelated: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: What Role is the U.S. Playing? (Ambassador David Shinn)

Friday, February 14, 2020

In case you've not seen it: "Ethiopia parliamentary election: Poll announced for August 29"

(Editor's note: It appears that National Electoral Board (NEB) will have a serious problem managing this huge electoral exercise. It is the same problem every five or so years. How about considering to decentralize elections in the country? This can be done by reresering the power to conduct federal elections and referendums to the NEB and by allowing regions and municipalities to organize and carry out their own elections. After decentralizing, NEB's role can be limited to register federal political parties that run only for the federal parliament (HPR). By the same token, regional electoral offices register regional parties and see that the parties run for seats for regional legislatures. The same should apply for municipalities. Here is a catch -  federal political parties which run for HPR should not run and take regional parliaments and municipalities as well. Decentralization ensures local parties with focus on local issues to run and provide effective services for the electorate. The other thing is, federal, regional and municipal elections do not have to take place at the same time in a manner that confuses and overwhelms voters; elections at different times in different places make it easy for the entire people of the country to follow elections in a particular region or municipality and appreciate issues people care about. The way elections are done now, it is undemocratic, too expensive for a poor country like ours and difficult to ensure its fairness. Decentralized electoral exercise is what every country that has adopted parliamentary systems follows. And, surprisingly, it works. I think we should try it at least in the election after next.)
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Aljazeera, February 14, 2020

Key election will be a first test of voter support for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in 2018.Ethiopia's 

parliamentary election will be held on August 29, the country's electoral board has said.

The announcement on Friday came weeks after the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) had proposed August 16 as a tentative date for the election, a first test of voter support for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

GLOBAL CONFLICT AND DISORDER PATTERNS: 2020

This paper was presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference at a side event hosted by the Armed Conflict Location & Event D...